Lesson 5

Plinko Mountain

Drop lots of balls through pegs and watch the middle fill up faster than the edges

Watch the mountain grow

Story: Each ball has to make lots of tiny left-right choices on the way down. Where will most of them land?

A Galton board is a triangle of pegs. You drop a ball from the top, and at every peg it bounces either left or right — each with 50% chance. At the bottom it lands in one of 13 buckets.

Drop enough balls and you get a bell curve: lots in the middle, few on the edges.

Balls dropped: 0 Buckets: 13

Start with 1 ball, then 10, then 100, then 1,000. The mountain shape gets easier to see as more balls fall.

Why the middle fills up

To reach the far left bucket (bucket 0) a ball must bounce left every single time — all 12 bounces. The chance of that is (½)^12 = about 0.024% — roughly 1 in 4,096.

To reach the middle bucket (bucket 6) the ball can bounce left and right in many different combinations. There are 924 ways to arrange 6 lefts and 6 rights across 12 bounces.

So the middle bucket has many different paths leading to it. The edge buckets have almost no choice at all.

Edge bucket: almost one exact path.

Middle bucket: lots of possible paths.

That is why the middle gets crowded. The middle has many roads leading to it.

This shape appears in lots of places

The same bell-shaped pattern appears in:

Whenever many tiny random choices pile up, the middle tends to win.

One important probability rule

All the bucket probabilities together must add up to 1, or 100%.

For our board with 12 rows and 13 buckets, all 13 probabilities add to 1.0000000000 — essentially exactly 1.

Quiz time

In a Galton board with 12 rows, how many buckets are there at the bottom?

Which bucket gets the MOST balls in a fair Galton board?

What happens when you drop 1 000 balls into the Galton board?

In a Galton board with 12 rows, the ball bounces 12 times. If the board is perfectly fair (50-50 at each peg), which bucket number does it land in most often? (Count from 0 on the left.)